Each game develops differently, the momentum can change for many reasons. Through the xG value, we can clearly see what happened in the big Serie A clash Roma v Inter.
Several factors can change the outcome of a match. Many different things can happen during the 90+ minutes. The home team might push forward right at the start while the opponents can react later on changing the pace of the game.
This is exactly what happened at the Stadio Olimpico yesterday. Roma started the match with the right attitude albeit Inter promptly reacted. But when Pellegrini scored the opener (17th minute), something had changed.
The xG value clearly highlights the reaction of Conte‘s side. While the Giallorossi got stuck with an xG value of 0.18 from the 22nd to the 72nd minute, the Nerazzurri created chances to score and actually did that twice with Skriniar (56′) and Hakimi (63′). In the period under consideration, Inter’s xG value went from 0.76 to 1.93.
The tactical approach of a team might change throughout the match. When a few players of the starting 11 are replaced, the overall effects can be positive or negative. Inter’s coach Antonio Conte played Perisic (in the 77th minute), Gagliardini (82′), and Kolarov (82′) to rest Martinez, Vidal, and Hakimi. But the impression was that Roma benefited the most from these changes.
Paulo Fonseca replaced Spinazzola with Peres (in the 73rd minute) and Veretout with Cristante (79′) and the Lupi started attacking again. The xG value steadily increased from 0.18 to 0.90. The Giallorossi had their maximum impact in the final 15-20 minutes of the match. The pressure Roma put on the defense line of the Nerazzurri, led to Mancini‘s equalizer in the 86th minute. The Italian defender scored a difficult goal, the reported xG value of his header is 0.02 (2% chance to score in that way from that position).
The momentum of a match can suddenly change. Roma and Inter showed us that the quality of great players can make a difference. But the men on the pitch must remain focused on the ultimate goal, play well and possibly win.