Roma’s Structural Crisis Confirmed by the Expected Goals

Lorenzo Pellegrini | AS Roma
Lorenzo Pellegrini | AS Roma

Di Francesco’s side is unable to defend as well as to propose proper offensive plays. The giallorossi have already lost three matches since the beginning of the season.




The Expected Goals (xG) simply are the shots made by a team to which a numeric value is assigned. These values represent the possibility of a team to score a goal.

Analyzing the data provided by ‘UnderStats’, Bologna shouldn’t have scored goals today at the Dall’Ara stadium while Roma should have thrown three balls in the back of the net.

  • Bologna xG: 0.89
  • Roma xG: 3.20




Bologna’s most dangerous player on the field was Orji Okwonkwo (xG +0.29), the 20-year-old Nigerian forward who replaced Diego Falcinelli in the 68th minute. The rocky Federico Santander played a great match as well. Although he scored one of the two goals today, according to this statistical approach, he should have done something better (xG -0.50).

Roma, instead, created a few chances to score but, according to the numerical values assigned, Di Francesco‘s men wasted many opportunities. Lorenzo Pellegrini (xG +0.59), Federico Fazio (xG +0.73) and Edin Dzeko (xG +1.21) are those who can be blamed.

The Italy international missed an incredible chance in the first half shooting the ball over the crossbar from within the box with Lukasz Skorupski out of position. Fazio’s doubleheader was miraculously saved by the former Roma goalkeeper but the Argentine defender should have scored a very easy goal that could have changed the outcome of the game.

Embed from Getty Images

Edin Dzeko shot on target a couple of times but his daily questionable attitude ‘justifies‘ his poor and irritating performance against Bologna.

Diego Perotti, instead, is the Roma player who created the best chances to score for his teammates (xA +1.06). The Expected Assists (xA) measures the likelihood that a pass will be a primary assist. This value is based on the finishing location of the pass, what type of pass it was, and a variety of other factors.



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About Stefano Bernardini 3099 Articles
A Roman in New York achieving his dreams. Persistence can make extraordinary things happen. Editor of AS ROMA 360 | Calciomercato.it | Calcio e Finanza | Reporting on Major League Soccer.

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